The AI productivity narrative has a problem: the data doesn’t support it. Companies are spending billions on AI, laying people off, and the productivity numbers aren’t moving. Here’s why.
Every quarter, AI companies promise the same thing: AI will make your team 10x more productive. And every quarter, the aggregate data shows… nothing. Not because AI doesn’t work. Because companies have been terrible at measuring whether it does.
It’s the same story we saw with every major technology. Computers promised productivity, and it took decades to show up in the data. The infrastructure had to be built. Workers had to retrain. Businesses had to restructure. The same things are happening with AI right now.
Here’s what’s actually happening: companies are using AI as a cover for structural layoffs that they’d do anyway. The narrative is “AI is making some roles redundant.” The reality is companies always look for ways to reduce headcount, and AI is the perfect excuse with a forward-thinking PR angle.
These are real productivity gains. But they’re narrow enough that a “10x workforce multiplier” narrative is marketing, not reality.
The companies that genuinely benefit from AI this year won’t be the ones that replaced their workforce. They’ll be the ones that used AI to expand what their existing workforce could do — without burning them out trying to work twice as fast.
